Politicians: Finnish policy unaffected by Caucasus crisis

Russian-EU relations could suffer

Jyri Häkämies

Juha Korkeaoja

Eero Heinäluoma

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Finnish politicians interviewed by Helsingin Sanomat do not believe that the crisis between Russia and Georgia gives any reason for Finland to re-examine its security policy line.
      The present emphasis on military defence capability is sufficient, both in the view of Minister of Defence Jyri Häkämies (Nat. Coalition Party) and MP Juha Korkeaoja (Centre), the chairman of the follow-up committee on security policy.
      Korkeaoja points out, however, that the crisis can have repercussions on all of Europe.
      “I fear that the conflict will affect relations between the European Union and Russia, and between NATO and Russia. These kinds of military crises will certainly not promote the advancement of cooperation”, Korkeaoja says.
      Häkämies agrees that the impact on Finland is indirect.
     
Korkeaoja says that the policies implemented by Russia have grown tougher with the greater economic and political strength of the country. However, he does not expect a new cold war.
      “Russia has not started to isolate itself, or to refuse to negotiate. In addition, mutual econommic dependence between the EU and Russia has grown. The EU needs Russian energy, but Russia’s dependence on oil income from the EU is even greater”, Korkeaoja points out.
     
Social Democratic MP Eero Heinäluoma feels that the crisis has reinforced the justification for, and sustainability of Finland’s security policy line. Heinäluoma also emphasises the importance of military defence capability and international cooperation.
      “Georgia got plenty of verbal sympathy and encouragement, but the willingness of outside countries to do something appears to be limited. It is good to make note of this in Finland as well. We ultimately have to have the ability to take care of our own affairs.”
      Heinäluoma feels that the crisis has not revealed anything new about Russia’s policy.
      “The events in Georgia need to be put in their historical context. There is a long-standing conflict in the region, and Georgia was the side that initiated military action. This should not be forgotten. I do not feel that this would somehow alter our image of Russia, or of the points of view that guide Russian policy."
     
The views expressed by Finnish politicians do not come as a surprise to Tuomas Forsberg, Professor of International Politics at the University of Tampere.
     “In a situation like this, if politicians can possibly draw the conclusion that nothing has changed in our country’s position, that is the conclusion that will be drawn. The thinking is that it is a local conflict in the Caucasus, which does not apply to Europe”, Forsberg says.
     The ball is now in the court of the large parties.
     “The attitude of the National Coalition Party toward Russia and NATO membership has not rocked the boat, but it has started to make space for new thinking. Much depends on what conclusions are drawn by the Social Democrats and the Centre.”
     
The complicated conflict in the Caucasus offers arguments both for those who consider Russia a threat, and to those who do not see it as such.
     “We might think that Georgia’s attempt to get into NATO has been the reason for the Russian attack. On the other hand, it is possible that if Georgia had been in NATO, Russia would not have dared launch the attack.”
     Forsberg feels that it is very difficult now to evaluate the logic of Russian decision making. To do so it would be necessary to investigate the background of the decisions, but this is not easy in the case of Russia.

More on this subject:
 COMMENT: Finland’s OSCE role requires circumspection

Previously in HS International Edition:
  Stubb voices optimism over Georgia deal (12.8.20008)
  Finnish and French foreign ministers hold talks with Georgian President (11.8.2008)

Helsingin Sanomat