Poll: Battle between three largest parties over success in next Sunday's municipal election continues as tight as ever

Populist True Finns see strong spike in support

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The battle between the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Centre Party, and the conservatives of the National Coalition Party for the title of the largest party in Finland continues to be fascinatingly even.
     
According to an opinion poll conducted a week before the municipal elections next Sunday, the approval ratings of the three largest parties remained tightly bunched at around 22% apiece. The differences between the three were measured in tenths of a percentage point.
      Due to the margin of error of the poll it is impossible to arrange the three parties in order according to popularity. The order has changed in nearly every recent poll conducted by Suomen Gallup.
     
Support for the SDP and the Centre Party has in recent weeks diminished marginally, whereas the National Coalition’s backing has remained unchanged.
      For one of Finland’s political parties, though, the development has been onwards and upwards from the start of the summer: the populist right-wing True Finns have increased their popularity in every opinion poll, and the same tendency continues even in this latest survey commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat.
      Timo Soini’s party has already overtaken the Christian Democrats (4.3%) and is now on the heels of the Swedish People’s Party (4.8%).
      If the latest estimated approval ratings were the final election result, the True Finns would indeed be the overwhelming winners of the municipal election.
      The party’s approval rating would be nearly four percentage points higher than in the previous municipal election in 2004, when they secured just 0.9% of the vote.
     
The second clearest winner would be the Green League (8.4%), and the Christian Democrats and the National Coalition would also come out in positive territory.
      The heaviest losses would be experienced in the SDP camp. The Centre Party would also be among the losers, and the Left Alliance (9.0%) would see around half a percentage point chipped off their support in 2004.
      Still, no party should start celebrating or mourning just yet: there are a lot of uncertainty factors related to the election. For example the True Finns’ success is still on shaky ground: more than half of the True Finns supporters may still change their attitude or not vote at all.
      Half of the Green League supporting troops may do the same, and many of the potential voters of the Christian Democrats may also change their mind at the last minute.
      The most steadfast in their opinions are the Swedish People’s Party supporters. Of the large parties, the National Coalition seems to be on the most solid ground.
      The National Coalition has plenty of decided voters and fewer than average of those who still may change their mind.
     
When the poll was conducted on Monday, 14 per cent of the respondents had already cast their ballots in advance voting. The supporters of SDP, the Centre Party, the National Coalition, and the True Finns had been above average in their enthusiasm for carrying out their civic duty.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Gallup: National Coalition Party threatening Social Democrats´ historical dominance in Vantaa (14.10.2008)

Helsingin Sanomat