Poll: Centre Party still slightly ahead of SDP

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Both main government parties, the Centre Party and the Social Democratic Party, have just over 24% popular support among the public. According to a poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup, 24.8% of voters support the Centre Party nearly four weeks before the upcoming municipal elections, while 24.3% back the Social Democrats.
      The poll shows very slight increases in support for both of the two largest parties; the percentages are slightly more than one point higher than in the local elections of 2000.
      This latest poll gives the main opposition party, the National Coalition Party, exactly 20%, which is about the same as in other recent polls, and falls short of what the conservative-leaning party polled in the elections four years ago.
     
There is fairly little change in the figures of the smaller parties. The Left Alliance gets 9.5% and the Green League has 8.8%. The poll gives the junior partner in the three-party government, the Swedish People’s Party, 4.8% support.
      The Christian Democrats, who are preparing to choose a new leader, get 3.8% public support, while the right-wing populist True Finns appear to be stuck at one percent.
     
The poll was conducted in the first three weeks of September and the last of the interviews were conducted on Tuesday last week.
      Respondents were asked which party they would vote for if the municipal elections were held now. They were also asked which party they voted for in the 2003 Parliamentary elections.
      Less than half of respondents were completely sure of their choice, and more than 40% said that they were "fairly sure".
      The greatest proportion of respondents who were "very sure" of their choice was among supporters of the Left Alliance.
      The greatest number of unsure voters were to be found among supporters of the Green League, and uncertainty among them has grown. In the past month, the proportion of Green supporters who are certain of their decision has declined from 37% to 24%.
     
Certainty was also fairly low among younger age groups. Among those, aged 18 to 25, only 27% said that they were "very sure" of their choice of parties.
      Among those over 64 years of age, the level was 64%.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll: Just over half of Finns plan to vote in municipal elections (31.8.2004)
  Poll: Centre and Social Democrats make slight gains (30.8.2004)

Helsingin Sanomat