Poll: Finns increasingly uncertain over NATO; no increase in fear of Russia

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An increasing percentage of Finns are unsure over whether or not Finland should join NATO. According to a poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup, 16 per cent were undecided on the NATO question.
      The poll also indicates no significant change in the degree to which Russia is seen as a threat to Finnish security.
     
The percentage of those who are uncertain about the NATO issue grew by five points since the spring. Uncertainty had been on the wane for the past couple of years.
      Correspondingly, the percentage of both supporters and opponents of NATO membership had declined by a few points since the previous poll on the issue, which was taken in May. The changes fit into the poll's margin of error.
      The surge in political debate about military alignment has not led to an increase in opposition to joining the alliance, or support for such a move. The attitude of the citizens has mainly stayed the same. A clear majority still opposes joining, while one in four are in favour.
      Women are more likely than men to be uncertain about their view on the NATO issue. One in five women responding to the questionnaire chose the "don't know" option, while one in ten men did the same.
     
Opposition to joining NATO was highest among young respondents. Fewer than one out of five 15 to 24-year-olds want Finland to join NATO. One in three Finns over 65 are in favour of NATO membership.
      Men take a more positive view of NATO than women. About a third of men were in favour of NATO membership, while only one in four women felt the same way.
      Supporters of the conservative National Coalition Party took a much more positive view of joining NATO than supporters of other parties. More than half of supporters of the National Coalition Party are in favour of joining.
      Majorities of supporters of other parties are opposed to joining NATO. The most anti-NATO were supporters of the Left Alliance, the Social Democrats, and the Greens. More than two out of three supporters of those parties want Finland to stay out of NATO.
     
Most Finns are in favour of holding a referendum on the NATO question. Thee out of four respondents felt that if joining NATO were to become a current issue, the matter should be put to a popular vote.
      One in five felt that no referendum would be necessary. Young age groups were most eager to put the matter to a vote, while holding a referendum was least popular among those over 65.
     
One in five feel that the threat from Russia has increased in the past few years. However, about 70 per cent of Finns feel that the threat has not changed.
      Respondents were asked how political development in Russia might affect Finnish security. The survey was conducted shortly before last week's speech by Defence Minister Jyri Häkämies (Nat. Coalition Party) who said in Washington that Russia is Finland's greatest security challenge.
      Opinions on the threat posed by Russia vary by age groups. Young people see Russia as less of a threat than older age groups. Just under one in five 15 to 24-year-olds felt that the threat had decreased; in older age groups, fewer than one in ten felt the same way.
      Only one tenth in the 15 to 24 age group felt that the threat had grown. In older age groups about 20 per cent felt the same way. Russia is seen as the biggest threat among those aged 35 to 49, one third of whom felt that the threat had grown.
     
The poll involved telephone interviews with 1,001 Finns taken in late August and early September.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Antti Sierla to draft NATO report (23.8.2007)
  Foreign Minister Kanerva: This government will not apply for NATO membership (26.4.2007)
  Minister Kääriäinen: Finland must spend more on defence, or join NATO (2.11.2006)
  Sweden and Finland pledge to keep each other informed of NATO plans (16.10.2006)
  TV news: Editors of largest newspapers support NATO membership (12.10.2006)
  NATO would cost Finland EUR 70 million a year (14.2.2006)

Helsingin Sanomat