Poll: Greens increase their support and consolidate place as fourth most popular party

True Finns have not kicked on from European Parliament success

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No major changes have occurred in the support ratings of Finland’s three largest parties, according to a fresh opinion poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat (HS) and conducted by Suomen Gallup.
     
Compared with the previous HS-poll in June, the National Coalition Party continues to be the most popular grouping, followed by the opposition Social Democratic Party and the Centre Party, the survey shows.
      However, a new development has occurred in the competition among the Green League, the Left Alliance, and the True Finns over the status of the fourth most-popular party.
      According to the most recent survey, the support of the True Finns has not flourished since the European Parliament elections of June.
     
Instead, the popularity of the Greens has continued to increase even under the leadership of the new chair Anni Sinnemäki.
      The study indicates that the party has increased its support to 10.5 per cent, consolidating its position as the fourth most popular party in the country.
      With new leader Paavo Arhinmäki, the Left Alliance has also slightly increased its support rating, passing the True Finns.
      According to the poll, the ratings are: National Coalition Party 22.9% (23.3), Social Democratic Party 20.4% (20.6), Centre Party 19.1% (18.8), Green League 10.5% (9.8), Left Alliance 8.7 (8.2), True Finns 8.1% (9.0), Christian Democrats 4.9% (4.7), and Swedish People's Party 4.3% (4.5). The figures in parentheses are for June 2009. The present four-party coalition government consists of the Centre, National Coalition Party, Greens, and Swedish People's Party.
      In the course of the current year, the relative lead of the National Coalition Party has narrowed somewhat, as the NCP's support has slipped from nearly 25% in January.
     
Whether or not the controversy over election campaign financing has affected the backing of political parties remains somewhat uncertain.
      However, the good ratings enjoyed by the Greens could be a sign of such an impact, as the party has been calling loudly for transparent political funding.
      Nevertheless, Business Area Director Juhani Pehkonen from Suomen Gallup believes that the financial support of political parties is not an issue that could serve as a hot topic encouraging people to take a stand on political parties. Whenever such an issue turns up the proportion of those respondents who do not give their opinion tends to decrease.
     
According to this poll, as many as 35 per cent of respondents could not or were unwilling to say what party they support. In June the corresponding figure was 30 per cent.
      ”If anything, the debate on election funding sources has confused people, which is why the proportion of those respondents who did not offer an opinion had increased”, Pehkonen notes.
      The phenomenon can be seen particularly among those respondents who voted for the Centre Party in last year’s municipal elections.
      Furthermore, those who earlier voted for the Social Democatic Party have now chosen the alternative ”Can't say” more often than on average, while such a phenomenon did not occur among those who voted for the National Coalition Party and the Green League.
     
The increase in the proportion of those who did not reveal their opinions could also be attributable to the fact that the poll was conducted in July-August when most people were on vacation and less inclined towards political matters.
      When it comes to the certainty of respondents’ choice of political parties, the figures appear to be increasing. However, this could be a result of a kind of statistical illusion, and the number of those respondents who are uncertain about their choices are now found in the group ”Can't say” more often than before.
      Respondents can be asked how certain they are of their choice only if they have chosen one of the parties in the first place.
     
FACTFILE: The progress of the opinion poll
     
     
Suomen Gallup was commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat to conduct a survey on the backing of political parties in parliamentary elections.
     
The estimated support is based on the respondents’ replies and on the results of last year’s municipal elections.
     
The poll involved telephone interviews with 2,848 Finns over the age of 18. The interviews were conducted in July-August. The Åland Islands were excluded from the survey.
     
The margin of error was two percentage points at its highest in either direction, while the margin of error for small parties was smaller than that for larger parties.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll: Government approval rating falls over past six months (23.6.2009)

Helsingin Sanomat