Poll: Haavisto rising, Niinistö falling but still front-runner

Green candidate would have best chances in second round against Niinistö

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National Coalition Party candidate Sauli Niinistö remains the front-runner in the Finnish presidential race. However, a fresh poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by TNS Gallup shows that support for Niinistö has declined considerably, and that a second round is most likely.
      The poll gives Niinistö 38 per cent support for the first round, which is scheduled for January 22nd. This is well below the 50 per cent required to avoid a runoff on February 5th. If the undecided voters, whose ranks are increasing, are not taken into account, his support would rise to 48 per cent.
     
At present the big contest centres around who will face Niinistö in a second round. The poll has Social Democratic Party candidate Paavo Lipponen and Green League candidate Pekka Haavisto tied at seven per cent, while the Centre Party’s Paavo Väyrynen and the Finns Party’s Timo Soini are narrowly ahead of them with nine per cent each.
      Soini’s support has declined by two percentage points since the previous Helsingin Sanomat poll, while Väyrynen has held on to his level of support. Haavisto and Lipponen have both gone up by one point.
      Pekka Haavisto has had a steady rise in support since the autumn. Paavo Väyrynen has also been gaining.
     
The big surprise in the poll results is that Pekka Haavisto would pose the biggest challenge to Sauli Niinistö in a second round. Niinistö would still defeat Haavisto 67 – 19.
      Väyrynen would get 17 per cent if paired up against Niinistö, Soini would get 16 per cent, and Lipponen would get 15 per cent.
      The poll gives the Left League candidate Paavo Arhinmäki four per cent support, the Swedish People’s Party’s Eva Biaudet two per cent, and the Christian Democrats’ Sari Essayah two per cent.
     
The proportion of uncertain voters has increased from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.
      “This figure could be even larger a week before the elections. As the day approaches, not everyone will say who they plan to vote for, and taking part will also be those who do not vote”, says Juhani Pekonen, CEO of TNS Gallup.
      Young voters, those in blue collar professions, and those with the least amount of education are the most undecided population groups. Niinistö continues to attract supporters from other parties, particularly the Social Democrats.
     
The poll involved telephone interviews of 1473 people conducted between December 13th and 30th.
      The margin of error is 2.5 per cent.
     


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll: Lipponen stuck at seven per cent in presidential race (29.11.2011)
  Presidential poll: Niinistö remains overwhelming front-runner, Väyrynen support rising (15.11.2011)
  Poll: Niinistö leads, Soini second in presidential race; Paavo Lipponen´s numbers stagnant (10.11.2011)
  Poll: Niinistö remains overwhelming favourite in presidential race (18.10.2011)

Helsingin Sanomat