Poll: Lipponen stuck at seven per cent in presidential race

Niinistö down slightly, but remains clear front-runner; sharp increase in undecideds

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National Coalition Party candidate Sauli Niinistö remains the favourite in the presidential race. However, his overwhelming lead has declined somewhat in recent months, and now it is well below the majority needed for a win in the first round of voting.
      A new poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by TNS Gallup gives Niinistö 41 per cent support, which is three points less than at the beginning of November. In October Niinistö was still getting 50 per cent.
      “A change of a few percentage points is not significant. As the elections approach, people always start thinking about the matter through their own choice of parties”, says National Coalition Party secretary Taru Tujunen, who expects the campaign to intensify considerably after Christmas.
     
Percentages of all candidates except Niinistö are in the single digits. The True Finns’ Timo Soini is in second place with nine per cent, the Centre Party’s Paavo Väyrynen gets eight per cent, and the Social Democrats’ Paavo Lipponen gets seven. This means that support for all three contenders for the number two spot falls within the three-point margin of error.
      The biggest change from previous polls is the seven-point increase in those who are undecided, which rose to 20 per cent. Juhani Pehkonen, head of research at TNS Gallup says that a similar rise in the number of those who were undecided was seen right before the previous presidential elections six years ago. This suggests that as Election Day approaches, voters are seriously considering their choice.
     
Paavo Lipponen has been stuck at seven per cent rhroughout the autumn. “Lipponen’s campaign will not be seen in the numbers until after Christmas”, predicts SDP party secretary Mikael Jungner.
      Lipponen’s campaign headquarters has been operating at the SDP party headquarters in Hakaniemi for a few weeks, even though it operates independently of the party. Jungner says that the party now plans to intensify its efforts on behalf of Lipponen.
      “Seven per cent is clearly less than the support enjoyed by the party. By inspiring our supporters we can get it to rise again. The party will continue to work especially at the district level.”
     
The HS Gallup poll indicates that 44 per cent of SDP supporters say that they will vote for Niinistö, while Lipponen is getting just 34 per cent of the votes of people who normally vote for Social Democratic candidates.
      In a possible second round Niinistö would clearly come out ahead of Lipponen, Soini, and Väyrynen, raking in about 70 per cent of the vote.
     
After the top four, the Green League’s Pekka Haavisto gets five per cent, the Left Alliance’s Paavo Arhinmäki gets four, the Swedish People’s Party’s Eva Biaudet gets three, and the Christian Democrats’ Sari Essayah gets two per cent support.
      The date of the first round of the presidential elections is January 22nd. If no candidate gets an absolute majority in the first round, a second round will be held on February 5th.
     


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll: Niinistö remains overwhelming favourite in presidential race (18.10.2011)
  Presidential poll: Niinistö remains overwhelming front-runner, Väyrynen support rising (15.11.2011)
  Poll: Niinistö leads, Soini second in presidential race; Paavo Lipponen´s numbers stagnant (10.11.2011)

Helsingin Sanomat