Poll: National Coalition Party and Greens have closest internal race in European Parliament elections

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With just over a month to go before the elections to the European Parliament, the candidate lists of the National Coalition Party and the Green League appear to be the strongest. According to a poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup, three Greens and four National Coalition candidates are among the candidates getting the greatest personal support.
      In the poll, respondents were asked which of a list of 48 candidates of different parties they could imagine voting, if they were to cast ballots in June. Respondents were allowed to name all of the candidates that they could imaging voting for. The poll, therefore, measured personal popularity more than political support.
     
Measured in this way, the most popular individual candidate is Timo Soini (True Finn), followed by Heidi Hautala (Green). Coming after them are Ville Itälä (Nat. Coalition Party), Mitro Repo (independent, on Social Democratic list), Tarja Cronberg (Green), Satu Hassi (Green), and Anneli Jäätteenmäki (Centre).
      There are a total of eleven candidates that more than ten per cent of Finns could imagine voting for. It is significant that there is only one candidate each of the Social Democratic Party and the Centre among the most popular.
      Another indication of the weakness of the SDP’s list is that the party’s top candidate is the Orthodox priest Mitro Repo, who is not a member of the party. He is well ahead of veteran Social Democratic politician Liisa Jaakonsaari and MP Satu Taiveaho.
     
One factor worth keeping in mind is that respondents to the poll were only shown a list of 48 of the 241 Finnish candidates who are running for the European Parliament, and the campaigns are only now beginning.
      “Now the discussion is about who the candidates actually are. In the European elections especially, the decision on whom to vote for is often made very late. Many decide only in the voting booth or on election day, who to vote for”, emphasises political scientist Sami Borg.
      He points out that a measure of how well-known candidates are does not predict how much support they get, and for that reason, he proposes that instead of a general list of high-profile candidates, the favourites of supporters of specific parties should be examined.
      “Many will choose an appropriate candidate within a certain party. However, in the European Parliament elections, the individual candidates are of more importance than in Parliamentary elections.”
     
When the results are examined according to the party affiliations of the candidates, the candidates of the National Coalition Party and the Greens appear to face a tough internal competition on who gets elected. If the National Coalition Party were to get four seats, six candidates would seem to be competing for them at this stage. Among the Greens, Hautala, Hassi, and Cronberg would seem to be equally popular, but MP Jyrki Kasvi also enjoys considerable popularity. If the Greens were to get two MEPs elected, two popular candidates would fail to get in.
      In the Centre Party, Jäätteenmäki is clearly the most popular, but after that, the field is more even. Popular Centre Party figures include MP Antti Kaikkonen and former Farmers’ Union leader Esa Härmälä. However, MP Timo Soini of the True Finns is the third most popular individual among supporters of the Centre Party.
      In the electoral alliance of the True Finns and the Christian Democrats, Timo Soini is on top, and competing for a possible second seat are Christian Democratic Party Secretary Sari Essayah and MP Pertti “Veltto” Virtanen (True Finn).


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Orthodox Church: Father Mitro should stand as candidate in European Parliament election without his cassock (17.4.2009)
  Parties eye leading politicians for European Parliament elections next year (1.8.2008)

Helsingin Sanomat