Poll: President Halonen remains favourite in Presidential race

Niinistö and Vanhanen tie for second place

Tarja Halonen

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The Centre Party's Presidential candidate, Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen, and the National Coalition Party's Sauli Niinistö, Vice President of the European Investment Bank, are running neck-and-neck for the number-two spot in the race for the Finnish Presidency.
      According to a poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup, President Tarja Halonen, the likely candidate of the Social Democratic Party, remains the overwhelming front runner in the race. The poll gives her 51% support against 17% for Niinistö and Vanhanen alike.
      In two previous polls, support for Halonen was 53%.
     
The poll, taken in late April, shows a slight decline in President Halonen's support, which nevertheless remains above the 50% threshold needed to be elected in the first round. However, if the present trend continues, a runoff round might prove necessary.
      Niinistö has caught up with Vanhanen in recent weeks; the Prime Minister had been in second place in the various polls taken since last August. His popularity may have been affected slightly by the publicity surrounding the Prime Minister's upcoming divorce and questions about what may have happened in a hotel room with Minister of Culture Tanja Karpela.
     
President Halonen's lead remains surprisingly strong, considering that since the previous poll, the candidacies of Niinistö and Vanhanen, as well as that of the Green League candidate, MP Heidi Hautala, were officially announced.
      This is all the more surprising considering that the President has not yet said if she will seek a second term.
      President Halonen's overwhelming popularity is underscored by the fact that majorities of supporters of both the Left Alliance and the Green League support Halonen.
      The poll shows that only 22% of supporters of the Green League plan to vote Heidi Hautala, while 59% of Green voters support Halonen already in the first round.
      In addition, about one quarter of supporters of the Centre Party and the National Coalition Party say that they will vote for Halonen already in the first round.
     
Leaders of the Centre Party and the National Coalition Party held discussions shortly before the latest poll was conducted on possible cooperation in the second round.
      The aim is a commitment by both parties to support whichever candidate faces Halonen in the second round.
      However, the poll suggests that the idea of centre-right cooperation in the second round has not inspired many of the voters of the two parties.
      If the second round were held now, Halonen would beat Vanhanen by a margin of 63% to 29%, and Niinistö would lose 66% to 28%.
      In a runoff between Halonen and Vanhanen, 49% of National Coalition Party supporters would vote for Halonen, and only 46% would vote for Vanhanen. If Halonen and Niinistö faced each other in the second round, 59% of Centre Party voters would back Halonen and only 35% would support Niinistö.
     
The poll also shows sharp demographic contrasts among supporters of the three main candidates.
      Halonen is the favourite of young voters, blue-collar workers, and women.
      Vanhanen is favoured by voters over the age of 50, farmers, and residents of Eastern and Northern Finland.
      Niinistö gets more support from men than women. His supporters include many entrepreneurs and young adults, and his strong areas include the Helsinki region and Uusimaa Province.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Spirited debate more important for Green presidential candidate than election result (25.4.2005)
  PM Vanhanen to join Presidential race as Centre Party candidate (18.4.2005)
  Former Minister of Finance Niinistö enters race for Finnish Presidency (1.4.2005)
  Poll: Majority would approve of centre-right cooperation in Presidential election (29.3.2005)

Helsingin Sanomat