Poll: Presidential race for 2012 wide open for big parties

SDP and Centre have no leading potential candidate

Sauli Niinistö

Matti Vanhanen

Erkki Tuomioja

Sirkka Hämäläisen

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With the approach of the presidential election year 2012, the only clear-cut likely candidate among the big three political parties is the Speaker of Parliament Sauli Niinistö of the National Coalition Party.
      A fresh poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup ascertained the popularity of various figures in Finland’s political parties as possible candidates for President.
      Those interviewed for the study were allowed to choose a potential candidate that they liked from each party from a list drawn up by the political department of Helsingin Sanomat.
     
In the Centre Party European Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn and Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen were equally popular among the sampling of the whole population, with 18 per cent support. Among supporters of the Centre Party, Vanhanen was the favourite, getting the backing of 33 per cent. However, Vanhanen himself has said that he will not seek the nomination.
      The situation with the Social Democratic Party is as vague as that of the Centre. Former Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen gets the approval of 17 per cent of supporters of all parties, and former Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja gets 16 per cent. Former Left Alliance chairwoman Suvi-Anne Siimes is seen as nearly as good an alternative as an SDP candidate (12 per cent).
      Among SDP supporters, Tuomioja is the favourite, with 24 per cent support.
     
Sauli Niinistö, who finished second in the previous race in 2006, is the favourite National Coalition Party candidate for half of the public at large, while among supporters of his own party, he gets 73 per cent.
      Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Stubb is favoured by 19 per cent of the whole population as a good National Coalition Party candidate.
      However, Niinistö himself said in October that the presidency interests him less with every passing day, and that he would prefer a task in international politics.
     
Constitutional changes are underway that would further reduce presidential powers. Niinistö has come out in favour of fairly broad powers for the President, and he is not seen as the only leading figure in Finnish politics for whom the proposed changes would reduce the attractiveness of an office which could increasingly become that of a figurehead, than of an actual decision-maker.
      Considering that Niinistö is the most visible person in Finnish politics to be seen as a likely candidate, Juhani Pehkonen of Suomen Gallup, sees his approval rating among the whole population as National Coalition Party candidate as surprisingly low.
      Green MEP Heidi Hautala has run for President twice, but she only gets the backing of 23 per cent of the whole population for her candidacy, while 37 per cent of Green supporters were in favour of Hautala.
      In smaller parties, the choice of candidates has not been as difficult as it has been for the larger ones - possibly because there are fewer people to choose from. The True Finns were not included in the poll, as the party’s chairman, MEP Timo Soini, is seen as the party’s only possible candidate.
     
Respondents to the poll were also asked about their views on the possible candidacy of a number of figures outside politics.
      Taking the lead was former Bank of Finland governor, and current member of the board of the European Central Bank, Sirkka Hämäläinen (30 percent). The second most popular was Nokia and Shell Oil Chairman Jorma Ollila (29 per cent), followed by former Chief of Defence Gustav Hägglund (23 per cent).
      Somewhat unexpectedly, supporters of the Social Democratic Party and the Left Alliance were more likely to favour Hägglund than those of the Centre and the National Coalition Party, who gave high marks to Ollila.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  YLE survey: Stubb seen as new contender in next Presidential race (21.8.2008)
  Niinistö holds big lead in Suomen Kuvalehti poll on next President (7.4.2008)
  National Coalition Party has shortage of potential Presidential candidates (21.10.2009)
  Vanhanen: no run for Presidency in 2012 (26.1.2009)

Helsingin Sanomat