Poll: Social Democrats and Centre running neck and neck as elections approach
Slight decline in support for SDP and National Coalition Party
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If Parliamentary elections were held now, the government parties, the Centre and the Social Democrats would be in almost a dead heat in the race for the country's largest political party.
According to the latest poll, commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup, the two parties are separated by only two tenths of a percentage point, with the SDP slightly in the lead. The difference fits easily within the margin of error.
The Social Democrats have slightly lost ground since early January, when they had 24.2 per cent support. This has gone down to 23.5 per cent. The centre, for its part, has seen its numbers rise from 23.0 per cent to 23.3 per cent.
Those changes also fit into the margin of error.
The opposition National Coalition Party is losing support. In January it still had 21.6 per cent support, while in the latest poll gives it just 21.1 per cent, continuing a falling trend that began in the summer.
Support for the Green League is also going down slightly.
The reduction is just 0.2 percentage points since the last poll, but the direction has been downward since late last year.
There have been few changes in support for the smaller parties.
The Christian Democrats are shoring up the lead that the Swedish People's Party has had on them.
A key factor of uncertainty is that voters appear to be less sure of their party choice than before.
Only 43 per cent of voters are "very sure" of their choice of parties, whereas in January 46 per cent were very sure. Four years ago at this time 49 per cent were very sure - six percentage points more than now.
The greatest amount of uncertainty is among supporters of the Green League, only 26 per cent of whom are "very sure" of their choice.
Certainty among Green supporters has declined considerably since January, but supporters of other parties are also less certain than in January about their choice.
When comparing the situation with the same period in 2003, only supporters of the National Coalition Party have been as certain about their party choice at that time. Of supporters of all parties, the proportion of those who are very sure is several percentage points lower than four years ago.
The certainty of party affiliation raises with age, with 60 per cent of those over the age of 64 saying that they are completely certain of their choice of parties.
While uncertainty of which party to vote for has increased, ambivalence about whether or not to vote at all has decreased. In January 59 per cent were sure that they would vote. At the end of January and the beginning of February, 61 per cent were completely sure of voting, and in early February, 63 per cent were completely sure.
Now the likelihood of voting is exactly the same as it was at the same time four years ago - slightly below 70 per cent.
Helsingin Sanomat
Poll: Social Democrats and Centre running neck and neck as elections approach