Poll: True Finns increasing in popularity and approaching Greens, while Centre support continues to wane

Popularity of three large parties declining from April figures

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According to the most recent opinion poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup, the Centre Party, the National Coalition Party, and the Social Democratic Party have all slightly lost ground since the previous poll in April.
     
However, support for the Centre Party has declined by as much as 4.4 percentage points since the last parliamentary elections in 2007, while support for the Social Democratic Party has come down by 0.7%-points. At the same time, the moderate conservatives of the National Coalition Party have increased their popularity by a modest 0.6%-points and the True Finns by as much as 5%-points.
      Compared with the previous opinion poll in April, all three of the major parties have lost ground. The Centre Party has declined in popularity by 1.7 percentage points, while support for the National Coalition Party has gone down by 0.4%-points and that for the Social Democrats by 0.2%-points.
      The Centrists will most certainly be hoping for a decent bounce in the days and weeks ahead following the election of a new party chair to succeed Matti Vanhanen and take up the reins as Prime Minister for the ten months leading up to the next general election.
     
The National Coalition Party continues to be the most popular political party in the country, enjoying nearly 23% support, while the current popularity of the Centre Party is 18.7%, with the SDP in second place on 20.7%.
      Among the medium-sized parties, support for the Green League is steady at 9.8%, with the True Finns and the Left Alliance at 9.1% and 8.3% respectively.
     
In industrial areas, the True Finns are taking support from the Left Alliance and the SDP, as the party’s image as a nationalistic workers’ party is likely to increase its popularity.
      This is evident for example in the southern town of Kotka, where the immigration issues, the negative development of the areas of Kymi and Karhula since their merger with Kotka in 1977, and the association between the True Finns and the working-class population are all among the reasons for the increased popularity of the True Finns in the area.
      At the same time, the growth in support for the True Finns greatly outweighs the net losses of the two parties of the left, suggesting that more is going on in the country as a whole than a straightforward bleeding of votes from the traditional left towards the True Finns.
     
Four in ten of all prospective voters declared that they were certain of their choice of party, if the elections were held now. The highest number of uncertain respondents were found once again among the supporters of the Greens, while the supporters of the Left Alliance and the Centre expressed more confidence in their choice than the average respondent.
     
The 2,831 interviews in the study were carried out in the period from May 17th to June 4th.
      The sample of the study represents the voting-age population in the country, with the exception of the Åland Islands.
      The interviewees were asked: ”If the parliamentary elections were held now, which party would the candidate you vote for represent?”
     
The margin of error with the largest parties is nearly two percentage points in either direction.
      Finland will hold Parliamentary elections on April 17th next year.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll: Centre Party and National Coalition gain support, True Finns slip back (15.4.2010)

Links:
  Ministry of Justice: Upcoming Elections 2010-2019

Helsingin Sanomat