Poll shows Tarja Halonen remains overwhelming Presidential race favourite - Vanhanen officially opens campaign

HS Gallup suggests incumbent Halonen would win easily in first round

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President Tarja Halonen remains the overwhelming favourite in the upcoming presidential election. According to a fresh poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup, Halonen would be easily elected already in the first round of voting, winning 58% of the vote.
      The poll gives the National Coalition Party's upcoming candidate Sauli Niinistö 20% support, while Matti Vanhanen, who was officially named the candidate of the Centre Party on Saturday, is getting just 15% support. The interviews for the poll were conducted between the 11th and 27th of October.
      These figures have changed little since the previous poll in September. Halonen's and Niinistö's numbers have remained about the same as in September, while Vanhanen's show a slight decline, although the change is so small that it falls within the margin of error. Nevertheless, the downward trend is clear; in June a poll gave him 21% support.
     
The poll shows that most supporters of the Social Democratic Party, the Left Alliance, and the Green League would vote for Halonen in the first round. Nearly a third of supporters of the Centre Party also said that they would back Halonen in the first round.
      Adherents of the National Coalition Party are somewhat more supportive of their candidate, with fewer than one in five saying that they would vote for Halonen.
      Tarja Halonen is the overwhelming favourite among women voters, 72% of whom say that they would vote for her, while only 43% of men would back Halonen in the first round. More than one in four men would vote for Niinistö and nearly one in five would vote for Vanhanen.
     
Support for Tarja Halonen is over 50% in all parts of Finland. Niinistö's strong areas are in Uusimaa and other parts of the south of Finland. Vanhanen's strongest areas are in the east and north.
      President Halonen is the overwhelming favourite among young voters under the age of 25, 63% of whom plan to vote for her. Among pensioners over the age of 64, she gets 51% support.
     
In a possible second round, Halonen would win a landslide victory, with at least 70% support, regardless of which opponent she faces off against.
      A race between Niinistö and Vanhanen would be much closer, with Vanhanen slightly ahead, 51% - 49%.
      Plans for second-round cooperation between the centre-right parties do not seem to be working. In a two-way race between Halonen and Niinistö, a majority of Centre Party supporters would vote for Halonen. Likewise, if Vanhanen faced Halonen in a second round, more than half of voters supporting the National Coalition Party would vote for the incumbent president.
     
Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen said on Sunday that he is not concerned about his poor showing in the latest poll. Vanhanen received the news of the figures during a cruise on the Tallink Romantika car and passenger ferry, where he and about 2,000 other Centre Party supporters celebrated his nomination as the party's candidate.
      Vanhanen was unanimously chosen as his party's candidate at an extraordinary party congress in Helsinki on Saturday.
      Commenting on the poll numbers, he says that he expects a turnaround in the figures when voters get a chance to compare the candidates in televised debates. He predicted that the differences in leadership style between himself and Halonen will come out in the coming three months.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Sauli Niinistö overtakes Matti Vanhanen in Helsingin Sanomat Presidential poll (26.9.2005)

Helsingin Sanomat