Poll suggests lower turnout in prospect for European Parliament elections than in 2004

Share of those who are certain about voting has dropped by 10%-points

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Only one-third of Finns are absolutely sure to vote in the upcoming European Parliament elections, while another 30 per cent feel that they are fairly sure about voting, indicates a recent poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup.
     
The certainty to vote has decreased compared with the previous European Parliament elections in 2004.
      The proportion of those respondents who were sure or fairly sure to vote was 73 per cent in the corresponding period in 2004, while the present figure is only 63 per cent.
      The percentage of those who are determined not to vote or say they are unlikely to cast ballots in the June election is 35 per cent, compared with the 27% recorded in 2004.
     
The survey indicates that the percentage of those Finns who say that they will definitely vote in the Euro elections has fallen particularly among those aged 18 to 25.
      Currently only 14 per cent of young people are sure to vote, while the corresponding percentage prior to the previous European elections was 25 per cent.
      However, the eagerness to vote has remained high among retired persons.
      The breakdown among supporters of political parties suggests that the voting certainty of the supporters of the Centre Party, the National Coalition Party, and the Green League has declined from the previous Euro elections. However, the percentage of those SDP and Left Alliance voters who say that they will definitely go to the polls has remained more or less the same.
     
The poll involved interviews with 1,418 Finns of voting age taken between the 6th of May and the 21st May.
      The margin of error is some 2.5 %-points either way.
     
The question asked was: ”European Parliament elections will be held in Finland on June 7th, while advance voting begins on May 27th and ends on June 2nd. How certain are you about voting in the upcoming European Parliament elections?”
      A similar survey was conducted in late April and in early May, and the results of these surveys do not differ from each other to any great degree.
      However, since April the percentage of those who are certain to cast ballots appears to have increased among pensioners and entrepreneurs, while the voting certainty of students as well as professional and managerial employees seems to be declining.
     
The survey shows further that the percentage of certain voters among highly-educated Finns and pensioners is higher across the board than is the proportion among employees and students.
      Furthermore, the voting certainty of the supporters of the True Finns, the National Coalition Party, and the Social Democrats has increased from the April poll.
      The poll taken in April and the most recent poll in May both indicate that the supporters of the True Finns and the Green League are among those most likely to stay away from the polling stations.
     
In 2004, the overall turnout for the European Parliament elections in Finland was as low as 41.1 per cent.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Fresh poll suggests rising Finnish voter turnout in European elections (31.5.2004)
  Is voter apathy becoming hereditary? (30.9.2008)
  Poll: Nearly half of voters find it hard to choose candidate for European elections (22.5.2009)
  HS poll suggests just 32 % of Finns will vote in European Parliament elections (11.5.2009)

See also:
  YLE survey: one in three Finns cannot name top priority for MEPs (18.5.2009)

Links:
  Ministry of Justice Elections Portal

Helsingin Sanomat