Presidential poll: Niinistö remains overwhelming front-runner, Väyrynen support rising

Expert sees split between south of Finland and north and east

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Although he remains the favourite in the upcoming presidential elections, National Coalition Party candidate Sauli Niinistö has had a six-point drop in public support in the past month.
      In a poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by TNS Gallup, 44 per cent said that they would vote for Niinistö in the first round of the elections, down from 50 per cent in October.
      Second in the poll is True Finns chairman Timo Soini with 11 per cent. Centre Party candidate Paavo Väyrynen is third with 10 per cent support – up from six per cent a month ago. Next in line are the Social Democrats’ Paavo Lipponen (seven per cent) and the Greens’ Pekka Haavisto (six per cent).
     
The surge in support for Paavo Väyrynen would seem to be explained largely by the fact that Centre Party supporters have moved over from Niinistö to Väyrynen.
      Now 56 per cent of supporters of the Centre Party say that they would vote for Väyrynen and one third would vote for Niinistö.
      A month earlier, only 41 per cent of supporters of the Centre Party supported their own party’s candidate.
     
Political scientist Rauli Mickelsson of the University of Tampere says that Väyrynen’s rise reflects the same clear conflict that has led to the rise of the True Finns party.
      Mickelsson says that the division between the south and north of Finland is as sharp as the one that pitted the Reds against the Whites in the Finnish Civil War of 1918. The government is fairly focused on the south, with the exception of one minister from Kainuu.
      “The Centre Party is a party for the north and east of Finland. Its identity has been lost since the days of Matti Vanhanen. Väyrynen has been touring the country and attracted audiences, and the rise in support is repeating itself, which is exactly what happened with the True Finns. Now is an appropriate time to support Väyrynen”, Mickelsson says.
     
Respondents were also asked who they would vote for in a possible second-round runoff if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round. In the scenarios front-runner Niinistö was pitted against Lipponen, Soini, and Väyrynen.
      In such matches Niinistö would beat all competitors 4-1. In a race between Niinistö and Lipponen, 57 per cent of people who normally support the Social Democratic Party would favour Niinistö over the SDP’s own Lipponen.
      Lipponen’s weakness among supporters of his own party is attributed by Mickelsson to the lack of big differences between Niinistö and Lipponen. “Both are pro-EU men from cities in the south.”
     
The Swedish People’s Party’s Eva Biaudet and the Greens’ Pekka Haavisto get much of their support from women. Five per cent of women and just one per cent of men would vote for Biaudet.
      With Haavisto the corresponding percentages are nine and four.
     


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll: Niinistö leads, Soini second in presidential race; Paavo Lipponen´s numbers stagnant (10.11.2011)
  Poll: Niinistö remains overwhelming favourite in presidential race (18.10.2011)
  Poll: Niinistö well ahead in presidential race – Lipponen distant second (29.8.2011)

Helsingin Sanomat