Race for European Commission President intensifies; Lipponen’s chances decline

Paavo Lipponen

Jean-Luc Dehaene

Chris Patten

Anders Fogh Rasmussen

Antonio Vitorino

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Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern is working in earnest to find a new President for the European Commission. Ahern will be in Helsinki on Thursday this week for discussions with Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen on finding a successor for outgoing Commission President Romano Prodi.
      Finland’s Speaker of Parliament Paavo Lipponen, who has expressed interest in the post, is not currently seen as one of the top contenders.
      As Lipponen’s prospects are apparently fading, Foreign Affairs Commissioner Chris Patten is seen as an increasingly likely choice.
     
"Irish officials say that neither Antonio Vitorino from Portugal, nor Paavo Lipponen from Finland, both leftists, are gaining ground", wrote the Financial Times newspaper on Monday.
      However, Ben Crum, the head of the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), says that none of the names that have been put forward meet all of the criteria.
      Crum feels that the front-runners for the EU Presidency are former Belgian Prime Minister Jean-Luc Dehane, Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and Antonio Vitorino, the present Commissioner for Internal and Legal Affairs. However, he adds that he would not bet on anyone.
      Crum says that factors affecting the choice of Commission President include the candidate’s "political colour", intelligence, and communications skills. However, he does not feel that it is necessary for the new Commission President to be a former Prime Minister.
      Crum adds that the Commission President must not be an excessively pro-European federalist; whoever takes the office must be able to understand those in the member states who take a critical view toward the EU.
     
The candidate’s political background is important, because the European Parliament will want the Commission President to come from a party group that wins in the June elections for the European Parliament.
      The new Parliament will vote for the Commission President in July.
      Constitutional expert Alexander Stubb has expressed surprise at the Parliament’s view, pointing out that the new constitution has not yet been approved.
      Stubb recommends that Finnish politicians lobby harder on Lipponen’s behalf.
      One possible scenario put forward by Stubb will be that French President Jaques Chirac will call German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, and after the two agree on a candidate, they will decide which of the two should approach British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
     
The new, expanded EU will face a test at its June summit, when the member states are expected to agree on a new Commission President, and the constitution.
      Choosing a Commission President might prove to be easier than before, because the decision will be made for the first time on the basis of a qualified majority, and not by consensus.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Commission President Romano Prodi wants more efficient EU in HS interview (3.5.2004)
  Lipponen still interested in post of EU Commission President (22.3.2004)

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