Researcher: Russian empire will return, but will not be a threat to neighbours

Development which worries Finns does not frighten Russia expert

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Few people are as certain about Russia as Alpo Juntunen, a researcher at the Department of Strategy at the Finnish National Defence College.
      In his view, Russia does not pose any threat to Finland “at this moment”.
      Juntunen’s book, Venäjän imperiumin paluu (“The Return of the Russian Empire”), was published on Thursday. When asked if Russia poses a threat to the world and to Finland, he answered “no”.
     
Juntunen believes that Russia will take action only if it feels threatened.
      “The most efficient impediment to a new Russian empire is another modern and efficient state or powerful group of states with strong defence forces. The small neighbour of an empire should not throw itself into the lap of one of the empires. If this were to happen, we would be going from the frying pan into the fire”, Juntunen deduces.
      Ordinary Finns are concerned about environmental pollution from Russia, its crime rate, the economic collapse, the military threat, the gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, the repression of freedom of expression, and the murders of critics of the status quo.
     
Juntunen sees the prospect of economic collapse in Russia to be a great threat to Russia, but he does not think that it is a serious threat to Finland.
      Russia does not yet have the kind of extensive middle class whose conditions would collapse as a result of the present recession, so no riots or unrest are to be expected. The recession will not have the people falling down very far.
     
Russia, which yearns for its old superpower status, and which is building up its international position, sees the countries of Central Asia as part of its sphere of influence. It has drawn up treaties with those countries, which are similar to the former Finnish-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance.
      Juntunen says that Russia takes a positive attitude toward Finland.
      “There are no problems on the official level, but Russians have been nervous about talk of the return of Karelia. I have also been asked a few times what this means. I have answered by saying that Finland’s official policy line is that the borders are unchangeable.”
      The Baltic Sea has been and still is an historic object of interest for Russia, and this needs to be taken into consideration.
      “From Russia’s point of view, the Baltic Sea is of vital importance. Russia wants it to remain a channel between Russia and the West.”
      Juntunen notes that the gas pipeline is a German-Russian initiative, but that Russia is using energy as a means of wielding power.
     
Juntunen has surprised his listeners by proposing that Finland should acquire a submarine. “From the point of view of the defence of the Baltic Sea, we should have the same kinds of tools as the others.”
      Juntunen has also suggested that Finland should set up a military alliance with Russia, after which all of the problems seen between Finland and Russia would be eliminated. “That was a test”, he says of his suggestion. The test did not awaken much sympathy.
      Juntunen has also supported the common military exercises proposed by Russia.
     
Considering that there is a great discrepancy between talk and action in Russia, has anything changed in reality? Not much criticism is allowed there.
      “If someone criticises the national leadership or the armed forces, that will not be tolerated. Russia has always found ways to repress freedom of expression.”


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Stubb to Lavrov: “Finland is not neutral” (10.11.2008)
  Russia: Neutral Finland could promote new security treaty (9.11.2008)
  Stubb: Europe and USA should move forward together in relations with Russia (5.3.2008)
  NEWS ANALYSIS: OSCE - it’s mostly about Russia (6.12.2008)

Links:
  Finnish and Russian foreign ministers: Missiles have no effect on EU cooperation (12.11.2008)

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