Researcher: Swine flu to land in Finland from south in the autumn

Albert Osterhaus regards Europe’s reaction to flu scare as incoherent

Albert Osterhaus

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When severe influenza epidemics rampaged across the world in 1957 and 1968, young Albert Osterhaus was both times bedridden with the illness.
      This time around, however, Dr. Osterhaus, now one of the world's leading virologists, maintains that he will avoid catching the bug.
      “I am now in such a vanguard position that I can ensure that I will avoid the infection”, Osterhaus laughs when interviewed over the telephone.
     
If what Osterhaus considers the likeliest scenario will take place, even Finland should make provision for the possibility that the H1N1 influenza, also known as swine flu, will make landfall in the country in earnest in the autumn.
      This may happen, if the virus supersedes the common influenza virus during the southern hemisphere’s winter months.
      In the meantime, though, a vaccine might already be introduced in the north, says the researcher, who addressed the 19th European Congress of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology (ECCMID) over the weekend in Helsinki.
      “And if we’re really lucky, the infection will simply die down before that.”
      Although the virus’s behaviour resembles that of the common influenza strain, the general public does not really possess any resistance against it. Therefore it pays to prepare oneself for the infection that Osterhaus feels should be called the Mexican illness.
     
The World Health Organisation WHO listens to Osterhaus carefully. He was among the first scientists to identify the viruses that caused SARS and the bird flu.
      “The H5N1 bird flu virus sparked off the illness in people with apparently consummate ease, but hardly passed from one person to another. The present virus, in turn, passes between individuals without undue difficulty, but does not bring on the illness that easily."
      In Osterhaus’s opinion the bird flu would have been much more devastating than the present virus, had it been easier to catch.
      “But we still do not know what this virus will ultimately bring on.”
     
In Osterhaus’s view, the reaction to the influenza scares has not been on an unreasonable scale, despite the fact that some have criticised the western countries’ eagerness to throw money at controlling flus instead of, say, eradicating malaria.
      “These two are not mutually exclusive”, Osterhaus points out.
      “Even if the likelihood of this becoming a full-blown pandemic was only between five and ten per cent, it still pays to prepare for it.”
     
Osterhaus criticises the EU nations’ reaction to the threat: There has been a lack of coordination, for example, compared with the United States.
      “The countries are now competing with each other in medicine and vaccine acquisitions. This hardly qualifies as evidence of ‘good European spirit’”.
      “The possible epidemic would hit hardest the developing countries”, Osterhaus says. Many of the western countries, in turn, might get away with the illness with rather mild consequences, especially if the vaccine is produced on time.
      “There are rich and poor countries in the world, and an influenza epidemic does not change that fact.”
     
The virus researcher still hopes that the new virus would remain as a mere serious warning, although this alternative feels now less and less likely.
      “But still, nothing is as unpredictable as influenza”, Osterhaus concludes.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Swine flu brought to Finland from Mexico by couple is milder than feared (13.5.2009)
  Breaking News: Two cases of A(H1N1) swine flu confirmed in capital area on Tuesday (12.5.2009)

See also:
  Finnish swine flu patients released from home quarantine (15.5.2009)

Links:
  The 2009 European Congress of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology (ECCMID)
  WHO: Influenza A(H1N1)

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