Stability of the Balkans in danger

By Olli Kivinen
     
      Former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari today begins to brief the Security Council of the United Nations on his proposal on arrangements for the status of Kosovo. Lying ahead is a complicated political dispute, whose only sensible final result is that Kosovo's independence will be given a blessing. Whether or not this will happen is another matter.
      The report submitted to the Security Council is Ahtisaari at his best. He has become a peace mediator appreciated by the whole world through a combination of patient negotiation tactics and toughness that he has brought out when needed. Now as well, the first sentence in the title tells a simple truth that everyone knows, but which some do not want to admit: "Recommendation: Kosovo's status should be independence, supervised by the international community"
     
Five countries - The United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia have the right to veto resolutions in the Security Council by virtue of their status as permanent members. The first three have said that they support Ahtisaari's proposal, China is not likely to cause problems, but Russia has said that it will not support a proposal that Serbia and Kosovo do not approve. Serbia absolutely opposes independence for Kosovo.
      Ahtisaari's report is refreshing to read, because it states things in clear language. The eight-page core should be written into textbooks as an example of how even a diplomat can speak directly.
      First of all, Ahtisaari notes that multi-level negotiations lasting for more than a year have made one basic fact clear: the parties (Serbia and Kosovo) cannot reach agreement on the future status of Kosovo. The views are diametrically opposed to one another. Serbia will not agree to a separation, and Kosovo will settle for nothing less.
      Ahtisaari is also making it abundantly clear that he will not modify his report. "No amount of additional talks, whatever the format, will end the impasse", but a rapid solution is needed for the matter. The uncertain situation prevents Kosovo's development, and is threatening to lead to various difficulties, including unrest. "Pretending otherwise and denying or delaying resolution on Kosovo's status risks challenging not only its own stability, but the peace and stability of the region as a whole", Ahtisaari writes.
     
Russia faces a difficult choice. The problem is underscored by a coincidence. President Vladimir Putin wrote in a German newspaper in March, marking the 50th anniversary of the EU, that "we fully share all of the founding values and principles that label the views that the Europeans have of the world". Kosovo offers an excellent opportunity to demonstrate what those words mean in practice.
      In other words, Russia now has the opportunity to show what kind of a message it wants to send the world in a matter that is of key importance: how long a dictator like Slobodan Milosevic can have people in a country killed or expelled from their homes in the name of national self-determination.
      Russia has started playing for time. One aspect of this is a proposal for holding further negotiations under the leadership of another mediator. The Western members of the Security Council have rejected this because they, like Russia, have taken part in the work of the contact group that supports Ahtisaari's work, and seen that every stone has already been turned, without success.
      Russia also needs to ponder how the continuing state of confusion in the Balkans will serve its interests, and whether or not relations with the West should be jeopardised over the matter. Serbia faces a truly crucial question - whether or not it will it turn its back on Western Europe over this hopeless cause, and rely on Russia alone for support.
     
Kosovo is a crucial test also for the European Union and the credibility of its political activities. The EU soiled its reputation in Bosnia and Kosovo, when it was unable to do anything to stop the mass killings and ethnic cleansing that took place in Europe.
      Commissioner Olli Rehn spoke plainly when he recently discussed the matter. In his view, failure in a solution to the issue of the status of Kosovo would threaten to break political stability, and could even lead to chaos. He also emphasised that the price would be paid by Europe, and not Russia or the United States. The European Union is slated to implement the greatest civilian crisis management operation of its history in Kosovo once responsibility is shifted from the UN to the EU.
      The European Commission supports Ahtisaari's proposal, but a few member states are bickering and causing delays. It is extremely important that the injudicious governments of those countries be pressured to understand what all there is to lose through playing petty games.
      Serbia is trying to influence the wavering EU countries in the final moments. The past gives some credence to these attempts. Many West Europeans were also deceived in 1999 into thinking that the killing and ethnic cleansing in Kosovo could be stopped with something other than bombs in a situation in which Slobodan Milosevic had repeatedly deceived the Western countries, and after the horrors that had led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people continued in the territory of the former Yugoslavia for a decade. Opponents of the bombings had no alternatives to offer, because the path of negotiations had clearly been travelled to the very end.
     
Now it is easy to agree with The New York Times, which wrote in an editorial that Ahtisaari's reasonable proposal must be implemented without delay. Ahtisaari gets to the core of the matter in a simple sentence in his report: "Reintegration into Serbia is not a viable option".
      Recognising facts is a necessity. Only in that way is it possible to open the way to all countries of the Balkans toward the EU, to prosperity, and to stability. Kosovo was lost when Serbia started to push the Kosovo Albanians out of it, in addition to all of the other horrors.
      For that reason, there is no point in blaming Ahtisaari, the international community, NATO, the EU, or anyone other than Milosevic and the other Serb "war heroes", who are symbolised by General Ratko Mladic, the butcher of Srebrenica, who is still being protected by Serbia.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 3.4.2007


Previously in HS International Edition:
  UN Security Council begins debate on Ahtisaari Kosovo plan (4.4.2007)
  US opposes replacing Ahtisaari as Kosovo mediator (20.3.2007)
  Russia wants new UN mediator to replace Martti Ahtisaari (19.3.2007)
  Serb newspapers lanch onslaught against Martti Ahtisaari (9.2.2007)

Links:
  United Nations Office of the Special Envoy for Kosovo