A British study released on Thursday suggests that steps toward Finnish membership in the NATO military alliance could put the unity of both NATO and the European Union to the test.
According to the report by British researcher Keir Giles and her Finnish colleague Susanna Eskola, Russian comments on the possibility of Finnish NATO membership have been both unambiguous and hostile.
The study was published by the UK’s Defence Academy.
The researchers say that the NATO debate in Finland is dominated by fears and taboos concerning Russia.
In their assessments of possible Russian reactions to Finnish NATO membership, they mention both the Russian defence doctrine, and hard-line commentators, such as Russia’s Ambassador to NATO Dmitri Rogozin and Vladimir Kozin, a former official at the Russian Embassy in Finland.
The writers of the report say that possible Russian countermeasures to Finnish NATO membership could range from military action to limits on energy transport and other trade.
Giles and Eskola do not come out against Finnish membership in NATO, but they say that it could prove more difficult, the longer it is delayed.
At the end of the report, the two nevertheless quote an assessment from 2002 according to which Russia had taken possible Finnish NATO membership into consideration already at that stage.
