The historic choice of Matti Vanhanen

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By Unto Hämäläinen
     
      Matti Vanhanen had a choice between two good alternatives for the foundation of his new government. Vanhanen could have been able to continue with the Social Democrats as the main partner, or to bring together a government of the Centre Party and the National Coalition Party.
      Majorities exist in the new Parliament for either one. In both options the Centre would be the leading party, and Vanhanen would be Prime Minister for a second term.
      Vanhanen kept his cards hidden for two weeks, although he appears to have made his choice already on election night. Playing for time was wise, because supporters of the Centre Party needed time to change their minds; the supporters - and the party leadership - were prepared to continue with the old foundation.
      In a survey conducted on the week before the elections, 60 per cent of supporters of the Centre Party were in favour of continued cooperation with the Social Democrats, while just 29 per cent favoured a centre-right government ( HS-Gallup 16.3.). After the elections, the numbers were reversed, with 61 per cent of Centre Party supporters favouring a centre-right government, and fewer than one quarter yearning for centre-left ( HS-Gallup 16.3.).
     
When he announced the new political foundation for the government, Vanhanen emphasised the importance of the election result. The government is to include the three parties that made gains in the elections (the National Coalition Party, the Swedish People's Party, and the Green League), and the Centre Party, which retained its position as the largest party in Parliament, in spite of losing four seats. Vanhanen also pointed out that the Centre and the National Coalition Party hold a combined Parliamentary majority, which the Centre and the SDP no longer have.
      Jyrki Katainen of the National Coalition Party emphasised that for the first time it is possible to build a centre-right government under normal conditions. The previous time, in 1991, Finland was in a deep recession.
      Both arguments are true, but the real, and most important argument was not stated directly.
      The Centre and the National Coalition Party now has an historic opportunity to show that a centre-right government is a real alternative, and that it is possible to lead Finland for a full electoral term without the Social Democrats.
      Ever since 1983, when Finland started to have governments that lasted an entire electoral term, we have had three governments with the Social Democrats and the National Coalition Party as the main groups, and two Centre Party - SDP coalitions. Each time either option was available.
      A centre-right government has not been a genuine option before. Such a government was compiled in 1991 in a situation in which there were no options. The SDP had announced before the government formation talks that it would go into opposition.
      If the SDP had signed up for being in the government at that time, Centre Party leader Esko Aho would have immediately formed a centre-left coalition. Now the SDP offered to be in the government, but the Centre Party's Matti Vanhanen - after praising the SDP as a good government partner - nevertheless chose the National Coalition Party as its partner.
     
The golden moment of the centre-right parties became possible because they were successful in the elections, and because they were phenomenally lucky. The combined support of the Centre and the National Coalition Party was 45 per cent, but they got more than 50 per cent of the seats in Parliament. Usually the Centre and the National Coalition do not make gains in the same elections, and they did not do so this time either. However, massive gains by one did not mean massive losses for the other.
      In a close contest of three parties. The Social Democrats finished third, after the Centre and the National Coalition - for the first time during Finnish independence.
      Vanhanen and Katainen could not bypass the opportunity, even though neither had been prepared for it. Vanhanen had been ready to continue as Prime Minister or Minister of Finance of a centre-left government. Katainen believed that he would win the election, but the grand door to the government was not expected to open for him for another four years.
     
The new government has a reasonable chance of succeeding. The economy is doing well, and Vanhanen is trying to see to it that the government will not ruin the legacy of its predecessors. He actually has a big stake in the game. Before the election, Vanhanen declared that the economic policy line of his government could work as an example of a successful economic policy.
      One of the oddities of politics was that the centre-left government lowered taxes considerably, although its main parties were opposed to doing so before the 2003 elections. The same pattern is likely to emerge in the centre-right government, but in the opposite direction. Vanhanen's second government will not dare lower taxes nearly as much as its main parties had promised to do before the elections.
      Only small changes are in store in income taxes. VAT on food will go down, and inheritance taxes will be eased, but even that will remain as a source of income for the state. Talk about eliminating it will be consigned to the category of election talk.
      The government will also be helped by a period of calm. The next elections will not be held until the autumn of next year. By the time the municipal elections come around, the government will have to make tough, but unpopular decisions, if it wants to make them. In this, it can learn from the Swedish government, which has been courageous - at the expense of its popularity.
     
Good personal chemistry is also a vital question for the government. Two aspects must function well.
      The Prime Minister must get along with the Parliamentary groups of its government partners. Matti Vanhanen put money in the bank a year ago when he supported Sauli Niinistö in the second round of the Presidential elections. The National Coalition Party has fond memories of this.
      Vanhanen is the first Centre Party leader with an uncomplicated relationship with the National Coalition. He got along well with the Swedish People's Party for four years, and relations with the Greens have improved steadily. After all, ever since he was a young boy, Vanhanen has felt attraction to green values.
      A more difficult question is his relationship with the President of the Republic. The constitution requires that the government and President work together in leading the country's foreign and security policy, and in EU matters.
      The beginning of the cooperation will be tested with the choice of the Minister for Foreign Affairs. The new Foreign Minister will have to be a sufficient counterbalance to Tarja Halonen, so that the message will go through to the President's residence in Mäntyniemi. However, as a person the Foreign Minister must be someone who does not make the President feel that her position is in jeopardy.
      The names of two previous Presidential candidates, Esko Aho, and Sauli Niinistö, have already been raised in speculation on the matter. If either one of them were to be chosen Foreign Minister, President Tarja Halonen might feel that she is being challenged again.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 7.4.2007


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Intense bargaining over taxation expected in government talks
  Struggle over ministerial portfolios begins among parties (5.4.2007)
  Finland getting centre-right government with a shade of green (4.4.2007)

UNTO HÄMÄLÄINEN / Helsingin Sanomat
unto.hamalainen@hs.fi