Will Finland follow Sweden's lead?

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By Olli Kivinen
     
      Nordic centre-right political parties have often been targets of derision around the world. Many have said that they are the stupidest political actors in the history of democracy: they are so efficient in their focus on bickering with each other that the Social Democrats have managed to hold on to power for decades.
      The Nordic Countries have long been odd birds among the nations of the world. It has been difficult for foreigners to understand that cooperation based on extensive consensus has produced a society which is the best in the world in many respects, and which is envied everywhere - except among those whose ideologies will not accommodate Nordic values ranging from equality to opposition to corruption.
      The Nordic identity is also difficult to understand because in spite of the disputes, nearly all Nordic parties could be accommodated in a single large German or British "socialist" or "bourgeoisie" party for instance.
      The meagreness of political upheavals in the Nordic Countries has partly reinforced the overall image of serenity and lack of change. At the same time it has raised accusations according to which the countries have stagnated in the midst of the changes affecting the world - accusations that are actually groundless, as Denmark and Finland, for instance, are very well adapted to the flow of the globalised world.
     
The bafflement has decreased in recent years because both Denmark and Norway have experienced significant political changes, and the Social Democrats have lost their absolute position of power. The significance of the victory of the Swedish centre-right alliance is in the fact that Sweden has now taken a step in the same direction, even though the change was not nearly as rough as in Denmark and Norway.
      The victory of Sweden's centre-right parties has been downplayed by claims that it was prompted by a move by the conservative Moderate Party toward the centre and left, which suggests to some that no great political changes are in store for Sweden. This view could well prove premature, as a change in power in a democracy always means changes in emphasis and priorities. Victory gives a key to guide a society in a desired direction in a completely different way than a party can do by heckling in the opposition.
      What is significant is that there are more floating voters, as was shown by the Swedish elections. The winner, once the group's power is established, can offer its own options and guide the country onto the road of permanent change. In addition, it is worth remembering that the rise of the Moderate Party is without parallel in the country's modern history: an increase of 10.9 percentage points of its share of the vote, from 15.2 to 26.1 percent.
     
The core issue is simple: is Sweden starting something new, or is it in an interim phase? The answer will not come for years. Swedes do not want to dismantle the welfare state, but the country has problems in spite of strong economic growth. As is the case in Finland, hidden unemployment is much higher than official figures suggest. And the present model is unable to produce a sufficient number of jobs. The situation offers a new government some room for manoeuvre; whether the government can make use of this space is another matter.
      If the prediction is that Sweden will remain unchanged, one easily forgets that in the past year, big changes have taken place, and are taking place, in Denmark and Norway.
      The greatest change was in Denmark, where Anders Fogh Rasmussen, leader of the Venstre party, won a second election running in 2005. His right-wing government has brought significant changes to the country without destroying the welfare society. The government has also succeeded in its economic policy. Denmark is a very different country from what it was during the decades of traditional Social Democratic rule, or even when the country's first modern non-socialist Prime Minister, Poul Schlüter, was elected in 1982.
      Also in Norway the traditional position of power of the Social Democrats has been broken, even though their leader Jens Stoltenberg did get to be Prime Minister. The Social Democrats lost the elections in 2001, and the other parties got a chance to use power. In the elections of 2005 the Social Democrats did not get a majority, and had to settle for a red-green coalition government.
     
Things are different in Finland. When the election results from Sweden came out, the emphasis here was on how the political tradition in this country differs from that of the other Nordic Countries. This starting point has turned into a kind of mantra, although its permanence has not been written into the constitution, or into any of the sacred books.
      The hegemony of the Social Democratic Party has not been as great in Finland as it has been in the other Nordic Countries, but it is clearly the leading political force in our country - in a democratic country it is up to the citizens to decide if this is a good or bad thing.
     
The difference between Finland and the other Nordic Countries is most apparent in the fact that in Finland, the large centre-right parties compete over who gets to form a government with the Social Democrats.
      The final result of this is that the Social Democrats are able to keep their central position in a nation that is 60 to 70 percent non-socialist, depending on how this is calculated. This is partly due to the strong corporative nature of Finland. Power has flown away from Parliament to a tripartite system comprising the government, trade unions, and employers, and the Social Democrats are strong in the first two. Also in Sweden the LO - that country's equivalent of the Central Organisation of Finnish Trade Unions (SAK) - has been criticised of backing up the Social Democrats during the election campaign and afterwards.
      Sweden has usually been a strong trend-setter for Finnish society as well. In the future we will see if the Swedish non-socialists will manage to cause the same kind of clear change of direction as has taken place in Norway and Denmark, and if it succeeds, how it will be reflected on Finland.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 26.9.2006


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Finns lukewarm on idea of centre-right cooperation on the Swedish model (19.9.2006)
  Finnish political leaders react to result of Swedish election (18.9.2006)

OLLI KIVINEN / Helsingin Sanomat
okivinen@kolumbus.fi