NEW, 27.8.2008: British journalist writes grim prophecy of new cold war

Commissioner Rehn reviews book by British Russia expert

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By Olli Rehn
     
      British journalist Edward Lucas has written an intense prophecy of a new cold war*. Intended as an advance warning, the book has proven to be topical more quickly than its writer is likely to have imagined, in light of the war between Georgia and Russia.
      When I first read the book in the spring, Lucas’s chilly analysis of the influence of the unbridled use of power by those who grew up with the KGB seemed accurate, but the identification with the Cold War was questionable. After August the 8th, it is not easy to be as certain of this.
     
Lucas is a correspondent of the magazine The Economist, who has worked for more than 20 years in eastern Central Europe. In 1989 he reported on the death throes of East Germany as a correspondent for the BBC. In the autumn of the same year he was the only Western correspondent in Prague to witness the start of Czechoslovakia’s velvet revolution.
      Lucas’s main argument is tough, but simple: the West is losing the new Cold War, after hardly even noticing that it started.
     
The warning, intended as a wake-up call, brings to mind echoes of Winston Churchill, who warned of the rise of Nazism in the 1930s and of Communism in the 1940s. After all, it was Churchill who crystallised the concept of an “iron curtain” in his speech in Fulton in the United States in 1946.
      The tools of Russian power in the new cold war are money, energy, diplomacy, and propaganda.
      Lucas concedes that he exaggerates when he identifies modern Russia with the Soviet Union, which was a closed society. Nowadays Russians are able to follow world events, and they can travel rather freely, as long as they do not threaten the dominant authoritarian order.
     
On the other hand, Russia is much more cunning in its actions than the former Soviet Union. Lucas writes that previously, the strategic concern of the West was the ability of the Soviet Navy to close Europe’s sea routes. Now it is the ability of Gazprom to turn off the gas taps.
      The Kremlin seeks to wield, and is capable of wielding influence against the West, and also from within the West.
      The group of companies and lobbyists linked to Russia with economic ties forms an influential fifth column in Europe as well.
      According to Lucas, the decisive ideological tension of the new Cold War runs between Russian nationalism, which has a contempt for laws, and Western internationalism, which leans on the rule of law. The greatest victim of Russian nationalism has been freedom of expression and freedom of assembly. Lucas’s book begins with a recollection of the murder of his good friend Anna Politkovskaya.
      Lucas predicts that the struggles of the new Cold War will take place in Europe again - especially in the Baltic countries, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. Compared with the Cold War we recall, the battlefield has moved eastward, with the enlargement of the EU and NATO. It is in the eastern neighbourhood of the EU that the tensions between the European lifestyle and the authoritarian administrative practices are emphasised. These tensions have been seen in different forms in Serbia and in other parts of the Balkans, as well as Turkey, Ukraine, and also Russia.
     
Like Lucas, many others have also warned of a new Cold War. I am not convinced that the comparison fits. Instead of the stable balance of the Cold War, Russia appears to have taken a liking to the great power and power politics of the 19th century. Two concepts of security collide here; the European Union leans on security based on community.
      It had been assumed that Russia would have turned into a European state in this respect, and that it would have emphasised cooperation in the resolution of political conflicts. It is no longer feasible to hold on to that assumption.
     
The Kremlin appears to have calculated that the loss of international prestige means nothing, as long as people at home cheer, and those in neighbouring countries fear. I am doubtful that the right assessment has been made in the Kremlin. Russia can achieve tactical victories, but it is unlikely that power politics will work as the strategy of a great power. At least it is not adding to the Russia’s’ reputation as an international player.
      The EU has been ready for long-term cooperation with Russia. But how could it succeed with a Russia that is ready to use military force against democratic neighbours? I do not believe in containment policy, but I do believe in realism and reciprocity.
      Time will tell if Lucas will prove to be a true or false prophet. In the light of recent events, he has been correct to an unfortunate degree.
      Nevertheless it is clear that both Europe and Russia would lose from an extended confrontation. Whether or not this will happen depends largely on actions taken by Russia.
      It is those actions that will determine what kind of a bottom line researchers will draw from this apparent turning point of the European security system of the 21st century.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 27.8.2008
     
     
The author is a political scientist, and the European Commissioner for Enlargement.
     
     
* Edward Lucas, The New Cold War. How the Kremlin Menaces both Russia and the West. Bloomsbury, New York, 2008. 342 pages.

More on this subject:
 FACTFILE: A fifth column with mixed loyalties

Previously in HS International Edition:
  COMMENTARY: Hasty predictions of big changes (20.8.2008)

See also:
  How far will Russia go? (24.8.2008)

Links:
  Bloomsbury Publishers: The New Cold War, by Edward Lucas

Helsingin Sanomat