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Social Democrats emerge on top in municipal electionsNational Coalition Party make gains, while Greens and Centrists lose ground
With all the votes counted in the Finnish municipal elections held yesterday (see linked earlier reports from Sunday night), the Social Democrats emerged as the largest party in the country, with a 24.1% share.
The Centre Party, which headed the race in the early stages of the count and had won the previous election four years ago, slipped back to 22.8%.The conservative National Coalition Party also gained ground on its 2000 performance and took 21.8%. The Left Alliance slipped back slightly to 9.6%, the Greens lost ground to 7.3%, and the junior partner in the Centre-SDP government coalition, the Swedish People’s Party, had a modest gain to 5.2%. The election is not expected to change either the government or its main policy lines. Voter turnout across the country rose slightly from four years ago to reach 58.6%. Whilst this was broadly welcomed, it should be remembered that the 2000 figure of 55.9% was the lowest post-war total ever recorded. In Helsinki, the growth this time was rather larger than in the country as a whole, up 6 %-points to 57%. Only in the Oulu region was there a slight decline in voter enthusiasm. The best figures came from the Vaasa area, with 66%, and the lowest figure was recorded in Vantaa, where only one in two bothered to cast a ballot. The municipal elections failed to inspire voters as much as the Parliamentary poll last year, where the turnout approached 70%. The party leaders who anxiously awaited the public’s verdict on Sunday night were not unduly surprised by the slight increase in voter turnout, pointing out that it reflected a rising trend in the previous Parliamentary vote and even in the notoriously poorly-attended EU elections held last summer. Roughly one in four voters chose to give their vote in advance, with around 930,000 absentee ballots cast. The relatively sharp increase in numbers of advance voters had led some pundits to anticipate a commensurate rise in overall voting, but it seems merely to refelect a declining need to "take part" in the ritual of an election day. The SDP Chairman Paavo Lipponen was naturally delighted that his party had slipped past the Centre Party as the largest in the country. Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen admitted the Centrists had suffered a defeat already early in the counting, at which point the Centre Party were actually well ahead. This anomaly derives from the fact that small rural communities, often with a rock-solid Centre Party support, are the first to complete their counts. Vanhanen played down the scale of the defeat, pointing out that it was within tolerable limits for a party in power, compared with the opposition role the Centrists had held four years ago. The new National Coalition Party chair Jyrki Katainen described the result as a strong new start for the conservatives. Not only did the party improve their position relative to the 2000 municipal elections and last year’s Parliamentary vote, but they also clearly outperformed the scores predicted for them in recent opinion polls. There was disappointment, however, for the Greens under Osmo Soininvaara. The initial figures forecast a very gloomy night, but although the Greens did their customary catch-up operation late in the count, the party saw their support decline from around 7.8% to 7.4%, with the Helsinki area in particular failing to get out the vote. The result there was that the SDP moved back into second place behind the National Coalition Party, relegating the Greens to third spot. The Left Alliance also lost ground in the country as a whole, but can take modest consolation in picking up an extra seat in Helsinki as the city moved slightly to the left. Nevertheless, it would appear that much of the swing to the left was gladly picked up by the Social Democrats. For the Swedish People’s Party, this was the first election under chairman Jan-Erik Enestam in which they have actually increased their share of the vote. The Christian Democrats, under new management following the recent election of Päivi Räsänen as chairman, dropped 0.3%-points to 4.0%. The only other party with a Parliamentary status contesting these elections was the populist True Finns. They enjoyed a modest improvement in their fortunes, going up from 0.7% to 0.9%. The relatively small swings from one party to and other and the solid performance of two out of three of the government parties lends the lie to the idea that this would have been a protest election, or that the government’s performance so far would be hammered by an angry public. The implication is that the great majority of voters did not seek change, but are by contrast relatively eager to see the present public services continue into the future. This was the only real cause of tension in a subdued campaign, as the SDP and National Coalition Party clashed briefly over the preservation of basic services in municipal hands. No sitting MPs or government ministers received a rap over the knuckles in the form of removal from local councils or failure to win a seat. The nearest thing to such an upset was possibly the fact that True Finns MP Tony Halme was unable to replicate his huge Parliamentary election haul of votes in Helsinki, and also failed to carry any other True Finns candidates into the City Council on his coat-tails. Halme's suspended sentence for firearms and drug offences earlier this year may have been one cause, but the populist party argued that the reduced voter turnout from the March 2003 election hit them hard. The election result is unlikely to cause much friction within the government, and even less likely to lead to major policy changes. The failure of the Centre Party once again to "break through" in the larger cities of the south will be tempered by the fact that the Centrists continue to enjoy a very powerful position in the 400 or so smaller communities around the country.
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