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Afghanistan - always unpredictable

Finns unscathed so far - partly owing to good luck


Afghanistan - always unpredictable
Afghanistan - always unpredictable
By Pekka Hakala
     
      The armoured vehicle of Finland’s peacekeeping forces bounces around on the bumpy back roads of Mazar-i-Sharif. It is Saturday, and the temperature is above 40 degrees Celsius.
      According to weather statistics, the hottest 20 days of Northern Afghanistan are ahead.
      A ten-year-old boy raises his thumb as the Finnish group drives past.
      “It is a standard sign that there are no problems ahead”, says Major Mikko. “Young boys raising their thumbs indicate that the atmosphere is good, at least on this block.”
     
Peacekeepers nowadays prefer to use only their first names in public. Danish peacekeepers reportedly have received threats at home after their adversaries have found out their identity.
      Such rumours have circulated among the peacekeepers in Afghanistan for at least three years. Now there apparently has been some confirmation.
      The Finnish group stops in the dusty yard of the governor’s office and police station in Nahar-i-Sahi.
      The area surrounds Mazar-i-Sharif, the commercial capital of Northern Afghanistan.
     
Major Mikko drinks tea in the office of Governor Hadji Saed Abar. The governor asks Major Mikko to a meeting of village elders and the governor to plan security for the elections.
      Finally the governor notes that the construction of the wall surrounding the office is unfinished. Bricks have run out.
      “A wall would boost morale among the employees”, the governor says.
      Mikko promises to get back to the brick issue next week.
     
This is the hard core of Finnish peacekeeping: collecting and passing on information, coordinating aid, and conspicuous presence.
      News from the summer has revealed something completely different. More than ten armed clashes with Taleban rebels or their supporters, a suicide attack against a Finnish convoy.
      Ahti Kurvinen, the commander of the Finnish group, says that the Finnish-Swedish unit in Mazar has had to call in air support from the NATO-led crisis management forces already three times. The bombers have flown above the combat area, but it has not been necessary to fire any missiles.
      This sounds a bit different from traditional peacekeeping.
      What is Kurvinen’s answer to the hot question of the summer - of whether or not Finland is at war in Afghanistan?
      “We are in a crisis management operation, in which weapons have been used in self-defence in emergency situations”, Kurvinen says in his office, which has been set up in a transport container at Northern Lights, the Finnish-Swedish garrison in Mazar. “The rules on using force are exactly the same as before, but now we have come to the first situation in the history of ISAF in which the use of force is necessary.”
     
Most of the area patrolled by the Finns is peaceful and traditionally hostile toward the Taleban. Most of the violence has concentrated on a couple of small areas in the western part of the area under their control. In these areas, part of the population supports the rebels, mainly for ethnic reasons.
      Kurvinen does not believe that full-blown war will break out in the north of Afghanistan. Nevertheless, he fears a surge in violence before the presidential elections on the 20th of this month.
      Kurvinen is primarily worried about the spread of attacks and fighting to the eastern corner of the area, northeast of the city of Aybak. Heavy fighting is already taking place in Kunduz Province, where German forces are deployed.
     
The Americans are increasingly servicing their forces from north of the border with Afghanistan, as the fighting has made the southern route uncertain. Trucks roll past Aybak to the south along a new bypass road.
      They are tempting targets for the rebels of Kunduz.
      The commander has confidence in his force - both in the Finns, and the Swedes, who share the garrison with them. But the unknown factor - coincidence - is beyond anyone’s command.
      “With know-how, the right tools, and good morale we are able to deal with 90 per cent of all threats. But ten per cent is always coincidental. It is the X-factor.”
      So far, the Finns have been lucky.
     
Major Mikko’s vehicle leaves the yard of the governor’s office.
      “This does not look like a state of war of any kind. Such claims are rather far-fetched”, Mikko says. “The work is rewarding, when good things are achieved in a micro-level - when an individual person gets something positive.”
      Mikko recalls how schoolgirls walked on the streets of Mazar in their school uniforms before the summer holidays.
      “The return of the Taleban would be a return to darkness.”
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 2.8.2009


PEKKA HAKALA / Helsingin Sanomat
pekka.hakala@hs.fi